IPEX Forecast Entry

Forecasters' Names:

IPEX forecast issued by 1800 UTC on the morning of operations:

Year Month Day

Mesoscale Forecast Discussion (MFD)

The MFD must include a general forecast discussion, including a discussion of the potential for lake-effect and orographic precipitation. Specifically, we are interested in your thought processes behind the forecast.

Valid for Target Area from 1800 UTC today through 0000 UTC tomorrow (30 h)

Please enter carriage returns at the end of each line.

Sample MFD

Lake-Effect Precipitation Outlook

YES NO Target Area from 1800 UTC today through 0000 UTC tonight
YES NO Target Area from 0000 UTC tonight through 0600 UTC tonight
YES NO Target Area from 0600 UTC tonight through 1200 UTC tomorrow
YES NO Target Area from 1200 UTC tomorrow through 1800 UTC tomorrow
YES NO Target Area from 1800 UTC tomorrow through 0000 UTC tomorrow night

Forecast Tips: Steenburgh's Lake Effect of the Great Salt Lake: Scientific Overview and Forecast Diagnostics

Cloud-to-Ground Lightning Outlook

Target Area from 1800 UTC today through 0000 UTC tonight (6 h)
Target Area from 0000 UTC tonight through 0600 UTC tonight (6 h)
Target Area from 0600 UTC tonight through 1200 UTC tomorrow (6 h)
Target Area from 1200 UTC tomorrow through 1800 UTC tomorrow (6 h)
Target Area from 1800 UTC tomorrow through 0000 UTC tomorrow (6 h)
Forecast Tips: Schultz (1999)

Storm-total Snowfall Graphic

Storm-total snowfall graphic on a separate sheet of paper. Include, at a minimum, the following contours: 1, 4, 8, 12, 18, 24, . . . inches. Verification will only be done inside the red box, so contours outside this box, while appreciated for planning purposes, are not necessary.

Blank map

For the period from to .

Example

Probabilistic QPF Graphic

Probability of 0.1 inches of liquid equivalent precipitation: 25%, 50%, and 75% hand-drawn contours on a separate sheet of paper.

Verification will only be done inside the red box, so contours outside this box, while appreciated for planning purposes, are not necessary.

  • 1800 UTC today through 0000 UTC tonight
  • 0000 UTC tonight through 0600 UTC tonight
  • 0600 UTC tomorrow through 1200 UTC tomorrow
  • 1200 UTC tomorrow through 0000 UTC tomorrow

    Blank maps: Page 1 Page 2
    Blank map (postscript): Page 1

    Example: Page 1 Page 2

    Steenburgh's notes on the different types of precip sensors

    Point Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts (inches of liquid equivalent)

    Alta: 0000 UTC tonight through 1200 UTC tomorrow Manual measurements from Alta Lifts (1 mile north of CLN)
    Alta: 1200 UTC tomorrow through 0000 UTC tomorrow Manual measurements from Alta Lifts (1 mile north of CLN)
    Snowbasin: 1800 UTC today through 0000 UTC tonight ETI Gauge from Middle Bowl (SNI)
    Snowbasin: 0000 UTC tonight through 0600 UTC tonight ETI Gauge from Middle Bowl (SNI)
    Snowbasin: 0600 UTC tomorrow through 1200 UTC tomorrow ETI Gauge from Middle Bowl (SNI)
    Snowbasin: 1200 UTC tomorrow through 1800 UTC tomorrow ETI Gauge from Middle Bowl (SNI)
    Ogden: 1800 UTC today through 0000 UTC tonight OGD ASOS
    Ogden: 0000 UTC tonight through 0600 UTC tonight OGD ASOS
    Ogden: 0600 UTC tomorrow through 1200 UTC tomorrow OGD ASOS
    Ogden: 1200 UTC tomorrow through 1800 UTC tomorrow OGD ASOS
    Salt Lake City Airport: 1800 UTC today through 0000 UTC tonight SLC NWS ASOS
    Salt Lake City Airport: 0000 UTC tonight through 0600 UTC tonight SLC NWS ASOS
    Salt Lake City Airport: 0600 UTC tomorrow through 1200 UTC tomorrow SLC NWS ASOS
    Salt Lake City Airport: 1200 UTC tomorrow through 1800 UTC tomorrow SLC NWS ASOS

    Steenburgh's notes on the different types of precip sensors

    Environmental Conditions - For Use in IPEX Operations

    Mean 850-700 hPa Potential Height 1800 UTC today 0000 UTC tonight 0600 UTC tonight 1200 UTC tomorrow 1800 UTC tomorrow 0000 UTC tomorrow night SLC rawinsonde

    Guidance: latest Eta model forecast of potential height (m)

    700-hPa wind direction and speed (ddd/vv) in knots 1800 UTC today 0000 UTC tonight 0600 UTC tonight 1200 UTC tomorrow 1800 UTC tomorrow 0000 UTC tomorrow night SLC rawinsonde

    surface wind direction and speed (ddd/vv) in knots 1800 UTC today 0000 UTC tonight 0600 UTC tonight 1200 UTC tomorrow 1800 UTC tomorrow 0000 UTC tomorrow night SLC rawinsonde

    Height (feet above sea level) of 0°C isotherm 1800 UTC today 0000 UTC tonight 0600 UTC tonight 1200 UTC tomorrow 1800 UTC tomorrow 0000 UTC tomorrow night SLC rawinsonde
    Height (feet above sea level) of -3°C isotherm 1800 UTC today 0000 UTC tonight 0600 UTC tonight 1200 UTC tomorrow 1800 UTC tomorrow 0000 UTC tomorrow night SLC rawinsonde
    Height (feet above sea level) of -7°C isotherm 1800 UTC today 0000 UTC tonight 0600 UTC tonight 1200 UTC tomorrow 1800 UTC tomorrow 0000 UTC tomorrow night SLC rawinsonde
    Height (feet above sea level) of -15°C isotherm 1800 UTC today 0000 UTC tonight 0600 UTC tonight 1200 UTC tomorrow 1800 UTC tomorrow 0000 UTC tomorrow night SLC rawinsonde
    Height (feet above sea level) of -25°C isotherm 1800 UTC today 0000 UTC tonight 0600 UTC tonight 1200 UTC tomorrow 1800 UTC tomorrow 0000 UTC tomorrow night SLC rawinsonde

    Guidance: latest Eta model forecast of heights of isothermal surfaces (feet)

    Contingency Option Discussion (COD)

    Valid for Tetons and Tushar Mountains from 1800 UTC today through 0000 UTC tomorrow night (0-30 h)

    Please enter carriage returns at the end of each line.

    Sample COD

    Longer-Range Outlook

    Valid for Target Area and Tetons and Tushar Mountains from 0000 UTC tomorrow night through 0000 UTC three nights from now (30-78 h)

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    Sample Longer-Range Outlook

    OTHER USEFUL LINKS

    Bob Rabin's real-time satellite-derived kinematic fields (divergence, vorticity)

    Send a copy of this forecast to the following email addresses (e.g., name@nssl.noaa.gov), separated by commas:

    Your email address:

    • 1/14/00 David Schultz