(Updated 7 November 1997)
Have patience. I'm adding stuff when I've got time, but this will
never be complete and, if it ever was, the document would be
unmanageable. There's going to be someone at NSSL working on a search
utility that, when implemented, might make things a lot easier.
Panofsky, H. A., and G. W. Brier, 1958: Some Applications of Statistics to Meteorology. Pennsylvania State University, University Park, 224 pp.
Wilks, Daniel S., 1995: Statistical
Methods in the Atmospheric Sciences: An Introduction. Academic
Press, New York, 467 pp. (ISBN 0-120751865-3)
Murphy, A. H., and R. W. Katz (Eds.), 1985: Probability, Statistics, and Decision Making in the Atmospheric Sciences (A.H. Murphy and R.W. Katz, Editors), Westview Press.
Katz, R. W., and A. H. Murphy (Eds.), 1997: Economic Value of Weather and Climate Forecasts (R.W. Katz and A.H. Murphy, Editors), Cambridge University Press.
Many of the issues we face and measures we use in forecast verification date back many years or have been treated in papers that many meteorologists (particularly in the US) may have difficulty getting access to. I've defined "difficult" operationally here: they're not in our library here at NSSL, which is a reasonable, but not large, library. Here's a list of some of those papers of great signficance.
Bleeker, W., 1946: The verification of weather
forecasts. Mededeelingen en Verhandelingen, Serie B, Deel 1,
No. 2, Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute, 23 pp.
Clayton, H. H., 1927: A method of verifying weather
forecasts. Bull Amer. Meteor. Soc., 8, 144-146.
Clayton, H. H., 1934: Rating weather forecasts.
Bull Amer. Meteor. Soc., 15, 279-283.
Cooke, W. E., 1906: Forecasts and verifications in
Western Australia. Mon. Wea. Rev., 34, 23-24.
Hanssen, A. W., and W. J. A. Kuipers, 1965: On
the relationship between the frequency of rain and various
meteorological parameters. Mededeelingen en Verhandelingen,
No. 81, Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute, 65 pp.
Heidke, P., 1926: Berechung des erfolges und der
güte der windstärkvorhersagen im sturmwarnungsdienst.
Geografika Annaler, 8, 301-349.
(Due to the volume of material that appears in journals, I do not
pretend that this is a complete list.)
Three journals contain a significant amount of material related to
verification:
Many of the articles in the following list are from a set of verification references assembled by Allan Murphy in June 1996. It was sent to me by Dan Wilks as part of the preparation for the Short Course on Forecast Verification at tbe AMS annual meeting in 1998.
Bieringer, P., and P. S. Ray, 1996: A comparison of tornado warning lead times with and without NEXRAD Doppler radar. Wea. Forecasting, 11, 41-46.
Blattenberger, G., and F. Lad, 1985: Separating the Brier score into calibration and refinement components: A graphical exposition. The American Statistician, 39, 26-32.
Brier, G. W., 1950: Verification of forecasts expressed in terms of probability. Mon. Wea. Rev., 78, 1-3.
Briggs, W.M., and R.A. Levine, 1996: Wavelets and field forecast verification. Monthly Weather Review, 125, 1329-1341.
Brooks, H.E., and C.A. Doswell, 1996: A comparison between measures-oriented and distributions-oriented verification methods in forecast verification. Weather and Forecasting, 11, 288-303. (Web version with raw data.)
Clemen, R.T., A.H. Murphy, and R.L. Winkler, 1995: Screening probability forecasts: Contrasts between choosing and combining. International Journal of Forecasting, 11, 133-146.
DeGroot, M.H., and S.E. Fienberg, 1983: The comparison and evaluation of forecasters. The Statistician, 32, 14-22.
Doswell, C. A., R. Davies-Jones, and D. L. Keller, 1990: On summary measures of skill in rare event forecasting based on contingency tables. Wea. Forecasting, 5, 576-585.
Ehrendorfer, M., and A.H. Murphy, 1988: Comparative evaluation of weather forecasting systems: Sufficiency, quality, and accuracy. Monthly Weather Review, 116, 1757-1770.
Gringorten, I. I., 1967: Verification to determine and measure forecasting skill. J. Appl. Meteor., 6, 742-747.
Krzysztofowicz, R., 1992: Bayesian correlation score: A utilitarian measure of forecast skill. Monthly Weather Review, 120, 208-219.
Livezey, R.E., 1995: Evaluation of forecasts. Analysis of Climate Variability (H. von Storch and A. Navarra, Editors). Berlin, Germany, Springer-Verlag, pp. 177-196.
Marshall, K.T., and R.M. Oliver, 1995: Decision Making and Forecasting. New York, NY, McGraw-Hill, 407 pp. See Chapter 8 (pp. 303-341).
Mielke, P.W., 1991: The application of multivariate permutation methods based on distance functions in the earth sciences. Earth Sciences Review, 31, 55-71.
Murphy, A.H., 1991: Forecast verification: Its complexity and dimensionality. Monthly Weather Review, 119, 1590-1601.
Murphy, A.H., 1993: What is a good forecast? An essay on the nature of goodness in weather forecasting. Weather and Forecasting, 8, 281-293.
Murphy, A.H., 1996: General decompositions of MSE-based skill scores: Measures of some basic aspects of forecast quality. Monthly Weather Review, 124 , 2353-2369.
Murphy, A.H., 1997: Forecast verification. Economic Value of Weather and Climate Forecasts (R.W. Katz and A.H. Murphy, Editors). Cambridge, U.K., Cambridge University Press, See Chapter 7 (pp. 19-74).
Murphy, A.H., B.G. Brown, and Y.-S. Chen, 1989: Diagnostic verification of temperature forecasts. Weather and Forecasting, 4, 485-501.
Murphy, A.H., and H. Daan, 1985: Forecast evaluation. Probability, Statistics, and Decision Making in the Atmospheric Sciences (A.H. Murphy and R.W. Katz, Editors). Boulder, CO, Westview Press, pp. 379-437.
Murphy, A.H., and E.S. Epstein, 1989: Skill scores and correlation coefficients in model verification. Monthly Weather Review, 117, 572-581.
Murphy, A.H., and R.L. Winkler, 1987: A general framework for forecast verification. Monthly Weather Review, 115, 1330-1338.
Murphy, A.H., and R.L. Winkler, 1992: Diagnostic verification of probability forecasts. International Journal of Forecasting, 7, 435-455.
Potts, J.M., C.K. Folland, I.T. Jolliffe, and D. Sexton, 1996: Revised "LEPS" scores for assessing climate model simulations and long-range forecasts. Journal of Climate, 9, 34-53.
Roebber, P. J., and L. F. Bosart, 1996: The contributions of education and experience to forecast skill. Wea. Forecasting, 11, 21-40.
Schervish, M.J., 1989: A general method for comparing probability assessors. Annals of Statistics, 17, 1856-1879.
Stanski, H.R., L.J. Wilson, and W. R. Burrows, 1989: Survey of common verification methods in meteorology. Geneva, Switzerland, World Meteorological Organization, World Weather Watch Report No. 8 (TD No. 358), 115 pp.
Stensrud, D. J., and J. A. Skindlov, 1996: Gridpoint predictions of high temperature from a mesoscale model. Wea. Forecasting, 11, 103-110.
Tremblay, A., S. G. Cober, A. Glazer, G. Isaac, and J. Mailhot, 1996: An intercomparison of mesoscale forecasts of aircraft icing using SSM/I retrievals. Wea. Forecasting, 11, 66-77.
Watterson, I.G., 1996: Non-dimensional measures of climate model performance. International Journal of Climatology, 16, 379-391.
Wilks, D.S., 1995: Statistical Methods in the Atmospheric Sciences. San Diego, CA, Academic Press, 464 pp. See Chapter 7 (pp. 233-283).
Winkler, R.L., 1994: Evaluating probabilities: Asymmetric scoring rules. Management Science, 40, 1395-1405.
Winkler, R.L., 1996: Scoring rules and the evaluation of probabilities (with discussion). Test, 5, in press.
Yates, J.F., 1994: Subjective probability accuracy analysis. Subjective Probability (G. Wright and P. Ayton, Editors). Chichester, U.K., Wiley, pp. 381-410.
(Due to the volume of material that appears at conferences, I do not pretend that this is a complete list.)
The two conferences of the American Meteorological Society that feature the most work on forecast verification are:
Going through back issues of preprint volumes for these conferences
will provide a number of articles.
Brown, B. G., and A. H. Murphy, 1996:
Verification of aircraft icing forecasts: The use of standard
measures and meteorological covariates. Preprints, 13th Conf.
on Probability and Statistics, Amer. Meteor. Soc., San Francisco,
251-252.
Murphy, A. H., and D. S. Wilks, 1996: Statistical
models in forecast verification: A case study of precipitation
probability forecasts. Preprints, 13th Conf. on Probability
and Statistics, Amer. Meteor. Soc., San Francisco, 218-223.
Persson, A., 1996: Forecast error and inconsistency
in medium range weather prediction. Preprints, 13th Conf. on
Probability and Statistics, Amer. Meteor. Soc., San Francisco,
253-259.
Reap, R. M., 1996: Probability forecasts of
clear-air-turbulence for the contiguous U. S. Preprints, 13th
Conf. on Probability and Statistics, Amer. Meteor. Soc., San
Francisco, 66-71.
Verret, R., G. Babin, and R. Parent, 1996: A measure
of the value added by the manual forecasts upon the objective
statistical weather element forecasts. Preprints, 13th Conf.
on Probability and Statistics, Amer. Meteor. Soc., San Francisco,
198-203.
This list came from Dan Wilks. By my count, Allan Murphy was an author on 124 formal articles before his death in August 1997. At the time of his death, two additional articles were in review and he had written a substantial portion of a third, which will be completed and submitted.
1.) A note on the attributes of probabilistic predictions and the probability score. Journal of Applied Meteorology, 4, 297-299, 1965. (E.S. Epstein and A.H. Murphy)
2.) Verification of probabilistic predictions: A brief review. Journal of Applied Meteorology, 6, 748-755, 1967. (A.H. Murphy and E.S. Epstein)
3.) A note on probability forecast and "hedging". Journal of Applied Meteorology, 6, 1002-1004, 1967. (A.H. Murphy and E.S. Epstein)
4.) "Good" probability assessors. Journal of Applied Meteorology, 7, 751-758, 1968. (R.L. Winkler and A.H. Murphy)
5.) On the ranked probability score. Journal of Applied Meteorology, 8, 988-989, 1969.
6.) The ranked probability score and the probability score: A comparison. Monthly Weather Review, 98, 917-924, 1970.
7.) Scoring rules in probability assessment and evaluation. Acta Psychologica, 34, 273-286, 1970. (A.H. Murphy and R.L. Winkler)
8.) A note on the ranked probability score. Journal of Applied Meteorology, 10, 155-156, 1971.
9.) Second-order probabilities and strictly proper scoring rules. Journal of Applied Meteorology, 10, 177-179, 1971. (A.H. Murphy and C.-A.S. Stael von Holstein)
10.) Scalar and vector partitions of the probability score: Part I. Two-state situation. Journal of Applied Meteorology, 11, 273-282, 1972.
11.) Scalar and vector partitions of the ranked probability score. Monthly Weather Review, 100, 701-708, 1972.
12.) Scalar and vector partition of the probability score: Part II. N-state situation. Journal of Applied Meteorology, 11, 1183-1192, 1972.
13.) Hedging and skill scores for probability forecasts. Journal of Applied Meteorology, 12, 215-223, 1973.
14.) A new vector partition of the probability score. Journal of Applied Meteorology, 12, 595-600, 1973.
15.) A sample skill score for probability forecasts. Monthly Weather Review, 102, 48-55, 1974.
16.) A geometrical framework for the ranked probability score. Monthly Weather Review, 103, 16-20, 1975. (A.H. Murphy and C.-A.S. Stael von Holstein)
17.) Reliability of subjective probability forecasts of precipitation and temperature. Applied Statistics, 26, 41-47, 1977. (A.H. Murphy and R.L. Winkler)
18.) The family of quadratic scoring rules. Monthly Weather Review, 106, 917-924, 1978. (C.-A.S. Stael von Holstein and A.H. Murphy)
19.) On the evaluation of point precipitation probability forecasts in terms of areal coverage. Monthly Weather Review, 106, 1680-1686, 1978.
20.) Forecast evaluation. Probability, Statistics, and Decision Making in the Atmospheric Sciences (A.H. Murphy and R.W. Katz, Editors), Westview Press, 379-437, 1985. (A.H. Murphy and H. Daan)
21.) Comparative evaluation of categorical and probabilistic forecasts: Two alternatives to the traditional approach. Monthly Weather Review, 114, 245-249, 1986.
22.) The attributes diagram: A geometrical framework for assessing the quality of probability forecasts. International Journal of Forecasting, 2, 285-293, 1986. (W.-R. Hsu and A.H. Murphy)
23.) Trends in the quality of National Weather Service forecasts, 1986. Weather and Forecasting, 1, 42-55. (A.H. Murphy and T.E. Sabin)
24.) A new decomposition of the Brier score: Formulation and interpretation. Monthly Weather Review, 114, 2671-2673, 1986.
25.) A general framework for forecast verification. Monthly Weather Review, 115, 1330-1338, 1987. (A.H. Murphy and R.L. Winkler)
26.) Comparative evaluation of weather forecasting systems: Sufficiency, quality, and accuracy. Monthly Weather Review, 116, 1757-1770, 1988. (M. Ehrendorfer and A.H. Murphy)
27.) Skill scores based on the mean square error and their relationships to the correlation coefficient. Monthly Weather Review, 116, 2417-2424, 1988.
28.) Skill scores and correlation coefficients in model verification. Monthly Weather Review, 117, 572-581, 1989. (A.H. Murphy and E.S. Epstein)
29.) Diagnostic verification of temperature forecasts. Weather and Forecasting, 4, 485-501, 1989. (A.H. Murphy, B.G. Brown, and Y.-S. Chen)
30.) Comparison of objective and subjective precipitation probability forecasts: The sufficiency relation. Monthly Weather Review, 118, 1783-1792, 1990. (A.H. Murphy and Q. Ye)
31.) Forecast verification: Its complexity and dimensionality. Monthly Weather Review, 119, 1590-1601, 1991.
32.) Equitable skill scores for categorical forecasts. Monthly Weather Review, 120, 361-370, 1992. (L.S. Gandin and A.H. Murphy)
33.) Evaluation of prototypical climate forecasts: The sufficiency relation. Journal of Climate, 5, 876-887, 1992. (M. Ehrendorfer and A.H. Murphy)
34.) Diagnostic verification of probability forecasts. International Journal of Forecasting, 7, 435-455, 1992. (A.H. Murphy and R.L. Winkler)
35.) Climatology, persistence, and their linear combination as standards of reference in skill scores, 1992. Weather and Forecasting, 7, 692-698.
36.) What is a good forecast? An essay on the nature of goodness in weather forecasting. Weather and Forecasting, 8, 281-293, 1993.
37.) Evaluation of forecasts. Predictability and Nonlinear Modeling in Natural Sciences and Economics (J. Grasman and G. van Straten, Editors), Kluwer Academic Publishers, 11-28, 1994. (A.H. Murphy and M. Ehrendorfer)
38.) A coherent method of stratification within a general framework for forecast verification. Monthly Weather Review, 123, 1582-1588, 1995.
39.) The coefficients of correlation and determination as measures of performance in forecast verification. Weather and Forecasting, 10, 681-688, 1995.
40.) The Finley affair: A signal event in the history of forecast verification. Weather and Forecasting, 11, 3-20, 1996.
41.) General decompositions of MSE-based skill scores: Measures of some basic aspects of forecasts quality. Monthly Weather Review, 124, 2353-2369, 1996.
42.) Forecast verification, Economic Value of Weather and Climate Forecasts (R.W. Katz and A.H. Murphy, Editors), Cambridge University Press, 19-74, 1997.
43.) A case study of the use of statistical models in forecast verification: Precipitation probability forecasts. Weather and Forecasting, under review, 1997. (A.H. Murphy and D.S. Wilks)
1.) The uncertainty of uncertainty. Proceedings of the Fourth International Conference on Operational Research, Wiley-Interscience, 906-913, 1969. (P.C. Fishburn and A.H. Murphy)
2.) Forecasters and probability forecasts: The responses to a questionnaire. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 52, 158-165, 1971. (A.H. Murphy and R.L. Winkler)
3.) Forecasters and probability forecasts: Some current problems. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 52, 239-247, 1971. (A.H. Murphy and R.L. Winkler)
4.) Credible interval temperature forecasts. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 53, 966-970, 1972. (C.R. Peterson, K.J. Snapper, and A.H. Murphy)
5.) Information aggregation in probabilistic prediction. IEEE Transactions on Systems, Man, and Cybernetics, SMC-3, 154-160, 1973. (R.L. Winkler and A.H. Murphy)
6.) Subjective probability forecasting experiments in meteorology: Some preliminary results. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 55, 1206-1216, 1974. (A.H. Murphy and R.L. Winkler)
7.) Credible interval temperature forecasts: Some experimental results. Monthly Weather Review, 102, 784-794, 1974. (A.H. Murphy and R.L. Winkler)
8.) Probability forecasts: A survey of National Weather Service forecasters. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 55, 1449-1453, 1974. (A.H. Murphy and R.L. Winkler)
9.) Expressing the uncertainty in weather forecasts. The Statistician, 24, 69-71, 1975.
10.) Subjective probability forecasting: Some real world experiments. Utility, Probability, and Human Decision Making (D. Wendt and C. Vlek, Editors), D. Reidel Publishing Company, 177-198, 1975. (A.H. Murphy and R.L. Winkler)
11.) Point and area precipitation probability forecasts: Some experimental results. Monthly Weather Review, 104, 86-95, 1976. (R.L. Winkler and A.H. Murphy)
12.) Experimental point and area precipitation probability forecasts for a forecast area with significant local effects, 1977. Atmosphere, 15, 61-78. (A.H. Murphy and R.L. Winkler)
13.) Can weather forecasters formulate reliable probability forecasts of precipitation and temperature? National Weather Digest, 2, Number 2, 2-9, 1977. (A.H. Murphy and R.L. Winkler)
14.) The use of credible intervals in temperature forecasting: Some experimental results. Decision Making and Change in Human Affairs (H. Jungermann and G. De Zeeuw, Editors), D. Reidel Publishing Company, 45-56, 1977. (A.H. Murphy and R.L. Winkler)
15.) On the misinterpretation of precipitation probability forecasts. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 58, 1297-1299, 1977.
16.) Hedging and the mode of expression of weather forecasts. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 59, 371-373, 1978.
17.) Probabilistic temperature forecasts: The case of an operational program. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 60, 12-19, 1979. (A.H. Murphy and R.L. Winkler)
18.) The use of probabilities in forecasts of maximum and minimum temperatures. Meteorological Magazine, 108, 317-329, 1979. (R.L. Winkler and A.H. Murphy)
19.) Misinterpretations of precipitation probability forecasts. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 61, 695-701, 1980. (A.H. Murphy, S. Lichtenstein, B. Fischhoff, and R.L. Winkler)
20.) Subjective quantification of uncertainty in weather forecasts in the United States. Meteorologische Rundschau, 34, 65-77, 1981.
21.) User requirements for very-short-range weather forecasts. Nowcasting (K. Browning, Editor), Academic Press, 3-15, 1982. (A.H. Murphy and B.G. Brown)
22.) Subjective probability forecasting in The Netherlands: Some operational and experimental results, 1982. Meteorologische Rundschau, 35, 99-112. (H. Daan and A.H. Murphy)
23.) Subjective probabilistic tornado forecasts: Some experimental results, 1982. Monthly Weather Review, 110, 1288-1297. (A.H. Murphy and R.L. Winkler)
24.) Forecast terminology: Composition and interpretation of public weather forecasts. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 64, 13-22, 1983. (A.H. Murphy and B.G. Brown)
25.) Forecaster training: Overview of a panel discussion. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 64, 371-375, 1983. (R.A. Maddox, L.W. Snellman, and A.H. Murphy)
26.) Use of an analogue procedure to formulate objective probabilistic temperature forecasts in The Netherlands. Monthly Weather Review, 111, 2244-2254, 1983. (S. Kruizinga and A.H. Murphy)
27.) Interpretation of some terms and phrases in public weather forecasts. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 64, 1283-1289, 1983. (A.H. Murphy and B.G. Brown)
28.) Impacts of feedback and experience on the quality of subjective probability forecasts: Comparison of results from the first and second years of the Zierikzee experiment. Monthly Weather Review, 112, 413-423, 1984. (A.H. Murphy and H. Daan)
29.) Time series models to simulate and forecast wind speed and wind power. Journal of Climate and Applied Meteorology, 23, 1184-1195, 1984. (B.G. Brown, R.W. Katz, and A.H. Murphy)
30.) A comparative evaluation of objective and subjective weather forecasts in the United States. Journal of Forecasting, 3, 369-393, 1984. (A.H. Murphy and B.G. Brown)
31.) Probability forecasting in meteorology. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 79, 489-500, 1984. (A.H. Murphy and R.L. Winkler)
32.) Probabilistic weather forecasting. Probability, Statistics, and Decision Making in the Atmospheric Sciences (A.H. Murphy and R.W. Katz, Editors), Westview Press, 337-377, 1985.
33.) A comparative evaluation of objective and subjective weather forecasts in the United States. Behavioral Decision Making (G. Wright, Editor), Plenum Press, 329-359, 1985. (A.H. Murphy and B.G. Brown)
34.) Public interpretation and understanding of forecast terminology: Some results of a newspaper survey in Seattle, Washington. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 66, 810-819, 1985. (J.C. Curtis and A.H. Murphy)
35.) The use of probabilities in subjective quantitative precipitation forecasts: Some experimental results. Monthly Weather Review, 113, 2075-2089, 1985. (A.H. Murphy, W.-R. Hsu, R.L. Winkler, and D.S. Wilks)
36.) Objective and subjective precipitation probability forecasts: Statistical analysis of some interrelationships. Weather and Forecasting, 1, 56-65, 1986. (R.T. Clemen and A.H. Murphy)
37.) Probability forecasting in Sweden: Some results of experimental and operational programs at the Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute. Weather and Forecasting, 1, 136-154, 1986. (K.-I Ivarsson, R. Joelsson, E. Liljas, and A.H. Murphy)
38.) Objective and subjective precipitation probability forecasts: Some methods for improving forecast quality. Weather and Forecasting, 1, 213-218, 1986. (R.T. Clemen and A.H. Murphy)
39.) Quantification of uncertainty in fire weather forecasts: Some results of operational and experimental forecasting programs, 1987. Weather and Forecasting, 2, 190-205. (B.G. Brown and A.H. Murphy)
40.) Statistical analysis of interrelationships between objective and subjective temperature forecasts. Monthly Weather Review, 116, 2121-2131, 1988. (A.H. Murphy, Y.-S. Chen, and R.T. Clemen)
41.) Probability, statistics, and weather forecasting. Idojaras, 93, 84-99, 1989.
42.) Probabilities, odds, and forecasts of rare events. Weather and Forecasting, 6, 302-307, 1991.
43.) Anders Angstrom and his early papers on probability forecasting and the use/value of weather forecasts. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 75, 1227-1236, 1994. (E. Liljas and A.H. Murphy)
44.) Screening probability forecasts: Contrasts between choosing and combining. International Journal of Forecasting, 11, 133-145, 1995. (R.T. Clemen, A.H. Murphy, and R.L. Winkler)
45.) Hailfinder: A Bayesian system for forecasting severe weather. International Journal of Forecasting, 12, 57-71, 1996. (B. Abramson, J. Brown, W. Edwards, A.H. Murphy and R.L. Winkler).
46.) Improving forecasting performance by combining forecasts: The example of road-surface temperature forecasts. Meteorological Applications, 3, 257-265, 1996. (B.G. Brown and A.H. Murphy)
47.) On the early history of probability forecasts: Some extensions and clarifications. Weather and Forecasting, under review, 1997.
1.) A note on the utility of probabilistic predictions and the probability score in the cost-loss ratio decision situation. Journal of Applied Meteorology, 5, 534-537. 1966.
2.) Sensitivity of decisions to probability estimation errors: A re-examination. Operations Research, 16, 254-267, 1968. (P.C. Fishburn, A.H. Murphy, and H.H. Isaacs)
3.) Measures of the utility of probabilistic predictions in cost-loss ratio decision situations in which knowledge of the cost-loss ratios is incomplete. Journal of Applied Meteorology, 8, 863-873, 1969.
4.) On expected-utility measures in cost-loss ratio decision situations. Journal of Applied Meteorology, 8, 989-901, 1969.
5.) Nonlinear utility and the probability score. Journal of Applied Meteorology, 9, 143-148, 1970. (R.L. Winkler and A.H. Murphy)
6.) Ordinal relationships between measures of the "accuracy" and "value" of probability forecasts: Preliminary results. Tellus, 24, 531-542, 1972.
7.) Decision-making models in the cost-loss ratio situation and measures of the value of probability forecasts. Monthly Weather Review, 104, 1058-1065, 1976.
8.) The value of climatological, categorical and probabilistic forecasts in the cost-loss ratio situation. Monthly Weather Review, 105, 803-816, 1977.
9.) On the nature of the nonexistence of ordinal relationships between measures of the accuracy and value of probability forecasts: An example. Journal of Applied Meteorology, 16, 1015-1021, 1977. (A.H. Murphy and J.C. Thompson)
10.) Potential economic and social value of short-range forecasts of Boulder windstorms. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 59, 29-44, 1978. (W.R. Bergen and A.H. Murphy)
11.) Assessing the value of frost forecasts to orchardists: A dynamic decision-making approach. Journal of Applied Meteorology, 21, 518-531, 1982. (R.W. Katz, A.H. Murphy, and R.L. Winkler)
12.) The value of climate information: A decision-analytic approach. Journal of Climatology, 3, 187-197, 1983. (R.L. Winkler, and A.H. Murphy, and R.W. Katz)
13.) Value of weather information: A descriptive study of the fruit-frost problem. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 65, 126-137, 1984. (T.R. Stewart, R.W. Katz, and A.H. Murphy)
14.) Decision analysis. Probability, Statistics, and Decision Making in the Atmospheric Sciences (A.H. Murphy and R.W. Katz, Editors), Westview Press, 493-524, 1985. (R. L. Winkler and A.H. Murphy)
15.) Decision making and the value of forecasts in a generalized model of the cost-loss ratio situation. Monthly Weather Review, 113, 362-369, 1985.
16.) Repetitive decision making and the value of forecasts in the cost-loss ratio situation: A dynamic model. Monthly Weather Review, 113, 801-813, 1985. (A.H. Murphy, R.W. Katz, R.L. Winkler, and W.-R. Hsu)
17.) The value of seasonal precipitation forecasts in a haying/pasturing problem in Western Oregon. Monthly Weather Review, 113, 1738-1745, 1985. (D.S. Wilks and A.H. Murphy)
18.) On the economic value of seasonal-precipitation forecasts: The fallowing/planting problem. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 67, 833-841, 1986. (B.G. Brown, R.W. Katz, and A.H. Murphy)
19.) A decision-analytic study of the joint value of seasonal precipitation and temperature forecasts in a choice-of-crop problem. Atmosphere-Ocean, 24, 353-368, 1986. (D.S. Wilks, and A.H. Murphy)
20.) Quality/value relationship for imperfect information in the umbrella problem. The American Statistician, 41, 187-189, 1987. (R.W. Katz andA.H. Murphy)
21.) Decision-analytic assessment of the economic value of weather forecasts: The fallowing/planting problem. Journal of Forecasting, 6, 77-89, 1987. (R.W. Katz, and B.G. Brown, and A.H. Murphy)
22.) On the relationship between the quality and value of forecasts in the generalized cost-loss ratio situation. Monthly Weather Review, 115, 1534-1541, 1987. (Y.-S. Chen, M. Ehrendorfer, and A.H. Murphy)
23.) On the relationship between the accuracy and value of forecasts in the cost-loss ratio situation. Weather and Forecasting, 2, 243-251, 1987. (A.H. Murphy and M. Ehrendorfer)
24.) Use and value of multiple-period forecasts in a dynamic model of the cost-loss ratio situation. Monthly Weather Review, 116, 746-761, 1988. (E.S. Epstein and A.H. Murphy)
25.) The economic value of weather forecasts in wildfire suppression mobilization decision. Canadian Journal of Forest Research, 18, 1641-1649, 1988. (B.G. Brown and A.H. Murphy)
26.) The expected value of frequency calibration. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 46, 102-117, 1990. (R.T. Clemen and A.H. Murphy)
27.) Quality/value relationships for imperfect weather forecasts in a prototype multistage decision-making model. Journal of Forecasting, 9, 75-86, 1990. (R.W. Katz and A.H. Murphy)
28.) Optimal decision making and the value of information in a time-dependent version of the cost-loss ratio situation. Monthly Weather Review, 118, 939-949, 1990. (A.H. Murphy and Q. Ye)
29.) On the relationship between the quality and value of weather and climate forecasting systems. Idojaras, 96, 187-206, 1992. (M. Ehrendorfer and A.H. Murphy)
30.) Assessing the economic value of weather forecasts: An overview of methods, results, and issues. Meteorological Applications, 1, 69-73, 1994.
31.) Forecast value: Prototype decision-making models. Economic Value of Weather and Climate Forecasts (R.W. Katz and A.H. Murphy, Editors), Cambridge University Press, 183-217, 1997. (R.W. Katz and A.H. Murphy)
1.) Engineering meteorology: Meteorology and heating load requirements.Meteorological Monographs, 4 Number 22, 65-68, 1960.
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