Forecasting Tornado Location Across The Dakotas and Minnesota

On days when there was tornadic potential in the Dakotas and Minnesota, it was observed that a majority of 1995 and 1996 tornadoes had a tendency to develop in the northern sector of surface low pressure systems. Sixty two percent of the tornadoes occurred within 200 miles of the low pressure center azimuthally between 290 degrees and 90 degrees. This connection between tornado location and the low pressure center position was observed in the process of analyzing WSR-88D and surface data between 1994 and 1997.

This paper will explain the process and methodology and give case examples. Finally, a technique will be presented giving Northern Plains Forecasters more insight in forecasting the approximate location of tornadic development.