Ensemble Cloud Model Applications to Forecasting Thunderstorms or On the Resilience of Numerical Cloud Models in the Face of Abusive Assumptions

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Verification

• Convection
  • Model: 8 m s-1 updraft
  • Observations: lightning detection
• Severe convection
  • Model: long-lived updraft
  • Observations: report of wind, hail, tornado
• Supercell (severe convection)
  • Model: Long-lived correlation of vorticity, updraft
  • Observations: report of wind, hail, tornado and qualitative determination of storm type based on archived NIDS data.
    

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