Ensemble Cloud Model Applications to Forecasting Thunderstorms or On the Resilience of Numerical Cloud Models in the Face of Abusive Assumptions

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Verification Statistics

• 2x2 contingency table based
• POD=Correct yes/Observed yes
  • Perfect=1
• FAR=Wrong forecast yes/Forecast yes
  • Perfect=0
• Heidke skill score=(Correct-ref)/(1-ref)
  • ref=correct forecasts by random guessing
  • Perfect=1

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