Ensemble Cloud Model Applications to Forecasting Thunderstorms or On the Resilience of Numerical Cloud Models in the Face of Abusive Assumptions

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Mesoscale Model Performance

• Soundings generated by mesoscale model must be appropriate for the cloud model
  • Operational Eta seems to provide the “best” soundings for the current ensemble.
  • EtaKF seems to be the least useful.
  • 20 km RUC somewhere in between.

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