Ensemble Cloud Model Applications to Forecasting Thunderstorms or The Ensemble Heresies

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Summary

• Forecasts based on cloud-models require care
• Mesoeta forecast uncertainties are in the range ±1 K, ±1 g kg^-1, ±1 m s^-1 (large enough to be important)
• Forecast derived parameters (CAPE, BRN, etc.) are all over the place.
• Soundings creating long vs. short-lived storms are sometimes almost indistinguishable.
• Therefore, mesoscale model forecast inaccuracies are large enough to make deterministic forecasts for convection problematic.

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