Ensemble Cloud Model Applications to Forecasting Thunderstorms or The Ensemble Heresies

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COMMAS Output

• Run model out 2 hrs
  
• Ignore first 30 min
  
• Graphical output examined every 15 min for reasonable behavior (horizontal and vertical cross sections through domain, vectors, dBZ_e, w)
  
• Min and max within domain for certain variables provided every 1.05 min
  
• Retain and analyze
  
  • Maximum vertical velocity in domain (w)
    
  • Maximum reflectivity in domain (dBZ_e)
    
• Use a threshold to define cell beginning and end
  
  

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