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Ensemble Cloud Model Applications to Forecasting Thunderstorms
or
The Ensemble Heresies
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COMMAS Output
Run model out 2 hrs
Ignore first 30 min
Graphical output examined every 15 min for reasonable behavior (horizontal and vertical cross sections through domain, vectors, dBZ
e
, w)
Min and max within domain for certain variables provided every 1.05 min
Retain and analyze
Maximum vertical velocity in domain (w)
Maximum reflectivity in domain (dBZ
e
)
Use a threshold to define cell beginning and end
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