Ensemble Cloud Model Applications to Forecasting Thunderstorms or The Ensemble Heresies

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Cases and Results

• 18 cases of convection near either MEM or DFW during 1995 and 1996 Summer
• 39 COMMAS simulations per case using Mesoeta soundings as input
• Verify ensembles using observed storm tracks and lifetimes derived from WSR-88D Level II archive data (5 to 834 storms per day)
  

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