Ensemble Cloud Model Applications to Forecasting Thunderstorms or On the Resilience of Numerical Cloud Models in the Face of Abusive Assumptions

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Basic Ensemble Approach

Mesoscale model output (18, 21, 00 UTC).

Soundings are derived for selected region and landmarks.

Soundings are put into the Convective Cloud Model (COMMAS).

Output includes:

• storm lifetime
• straight-line winds
• low-level rotation & tornado potential
• rainfall estimates
• (others are possible)

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