Ensemble Cloud Model Applications to Forecasting Thunderstorms or The Ensemble Heresies

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Cloud Model Ensembles

• Convective storms show marked sensitivity to environment
  • Measurements of sufficient accuracy and spatial density for deterministic forecasts on the storm scale are unavailable
• Cloud models capture important storm characteristics when initialized appropriately
  • Initialize an ensemble, with soundings derived from a mesoscale model, to forecast the range and distribution of storm behavior
• Analyze cell lifetime
  • Long-lived cells generally cause more operational problems than short lived cells
  • Long-lived cells typical of storms causing severe weather
    
    

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