Ensemble Cloud Model Applications to Forecasting Thunderstorms or The Ensemble Heresies

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Basic Ensemble Approach

Mesoscale model output (18, 21, 00 UTC) is run for the Memphis ensemble region grid points and landmarks. A sounding is computed for each point which is then put into the Convective Cloud Model (COMMAS). Results include

• storm lifetime
• straight-line winds
• low-level rotation/tornado potential
• rainfall estimates
• (other parameters can also be calculated)
  
  

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